How does this differ from globalism?

Globalism is when everyone is with everyone else. Goods flow around the world, money does too, and the rules are dictated by international institutions: the WTO, the IMF, the G7, and others.

Continental neo-globalism (the new model) is when each continent is on its own, but each has its own "master." America has its own. China has its own. Eurasia—it depends. The WTO is losing influence, being replaced by bilateral deals. Import tariffs become a lever of pressure. The US is luring production away from Europe. China is being forced out of Latin America.

Globalists dreamed of a world without centers of power, only connections. The new model says, "There will be a center. Connections will only be with those who benefit us."

What do globalists think about this?

They're horrified. Because everything they built—free markets, open borders, "win-win"—is becoming a thing of the past. Globalists used to play Monopoly, where everyone moved on the same board. Now the table is turned over, the board is divided into continents, and the rules are written on each piece by a different predator. And the globalist with his dice stands aside. Out of it. The new world is a cave of tribes, where everyone lives on their own continent, and each role is strictly defined: you're a mine, you're a plantation, you're an assembly line. And all this without their participation. They have no place to fit their international schemes. Their "sandbox" is being torn down, and a new one is being built—to accommodate new American players.

Who is behind this transformation? Who is behind Trump?

Trump and his supporters aren't romantics or old-school geopoliticians, but rather: business technocrats, established industries tired of their dependence on China, new billionaires investing in real production, and a section of the Pentagon fed up with everything the military needs being produced in Shenzhen.

These aren't globalists sipping coffee in Davos. These are American pragmatists who say, "Screw the rules. We need things to work for us, not for some 'global partners.'"

What does this mean for others?

For China, India, and Russia this is bad news. They will have to fight for their pieces of production and logistics, protect their national specialties, and urgently build their continental connections before they are cut off from markets. For Europe, the news is also so-so...

Who is Europe in the new model?

Not a leader. Not a pivot. Not a driver. It is:

▪ a former industrial giant whose factory has left and gas prices have risen,

▪ a regulator without control over supply chains,

▪ a diplomat without armies or teeth,

▪ rich but not an investor,

▪ a sales market but not a production site,

▪ a habitual globalist surrounded by continentalists.

What is Europe losing?

▪ Access to cheap energy – after the break with Russia and problems in the Middle East;

▪ Manufacturing – already migrating to the US for benefits and protections (see the Inflation Reduction Act);

▪ Influence on the rules of the game;

▪ Strategic autonomy — their own armies? No. Strategic resources? Europe has almost none.

What's left for Europe to do?

Be the world's environmental regulator—prohibit, measure, and index everything. Remain a soft power—culture, education, tourism. Become a buffer zone between empires. Cherish the illusion of globalism, while the US and China are busy assembling continental worlds.

Possible scenarios:

If Europe doesn't change its model:

→ Its investments will flow to the US or Latin America;

→ Its exports will lose competitiveness;

→ Its role in international transactions will diminish;

→ Its technologies will be bought out, as has already happened.

7 Key Risks for the US
in the New Model of "Continental Neo-Globalism"

① Empire Management Overload

The US wants to simultaneously: manage its domestic market (which is bursting with inequality), coordinate the industrial renaissance in Latin America, contain China, weaken Russia, and maintain a balance in the Middle East.

→ Risk: systemic fatigue and strategic dissipation. Rome, too, tried to control everything—and overextended itself.

② Domestic Political Instability

America is no longer a monolith: a split between "Trumpists" and "globalists," racial and social conflicts, a crisis of trust in institutions, a possible "Democratic revenge," and electoral swings.

→ Risk: a change in course that would derail plans for the "new industrialization of the continent" and frighten investors.

③ Latin America May Not Surrender

Yes, the US has leverage, but: local elites may play their own game,
the people may resist the new "workers' ration,"

China won't simply leave: it has already integrated itself into the region's economy.

→ Risk: latent instability, unrest, the pendulum of leftist regimes. Latin America is not sleeping. Everything is alive there.

④ Lack of Real Resources

To build a new industry, we need: rare earth metals, abundant cheap energy, stable logistics, and qualified personnel.

→ Risk: There won't be enough of everything. China still controls key materials and supply chains. The US could hit a "resource ceiling."

⑤ Conflict with Global Corporations

The new model undermines the interests of those who built supply chains in China, India, and Europe.

→ Risk: Corporations will be reluctant to "return home," but will instead lobby for their own schemes or hinder reform from within.

⑥ Global Coalition Against the "Neo-Empire"

If the US stops playing by international rules, the following could happen: the formation of alternative blocs—India + China + Russia + part of Africa; regional currency zones; new investment alliances without US participation.

→ Risk: Long-term strategic isolation.

⑦ The Moral Degradation of Empire

If profit and force are the only considerations, then: the trust of allies disappears, soft power fades, and the US becomes simply a "rich and tough guy" rather than a country worth clinging to.

→ Risk: loss of moral leadership and cultural magnetism. Without these, even empires are boring.

Manage risks with the InnoBall simulation game