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Background
The "Delphi-scenario writing" (DSW) method
was first used in Toshiba Corporation in 1978 for developing the strategy of
facsimile
→
innovation for the
small office and home use facsimile that was promoted intensively in
Japan
to overcome the language difficulties resulting from the use of many
Chinese
characters.
Forecasting
Comes First
In every action, forecasting comes first.
The Delphi method is a well-known
intuitive method.
The advantage of the Delphi forecast
resides in its
simplicity and convenience to use. The Delphi-Scenario
method is an integrated method that provides a
systematic approach to
developing a
→
strategic scenario for promoting the
→
innovation process.
The Eight-Step Process
The DSW method
consists of the eight steps. The first three steps from the first object
analysis to the Delphi forecasting provide a Delphi needs/time chart, which
illustrates the preliminary information of the technology and the future
services. Then, the following two steps from the fourth morphology analysis
to foresight scenario writing focus on clarifying the interrelationships
between the forecasted items, which generates a flow-chart scenario that
leads to the another two steps from strategic program scenario writing to
integrated
strategy development. The last step of the
strategy
implementation provides a practical program to promote the
innovation and
the expected results, for example, the projected penetration curve of the
product life cycle.
Core Advantages
New factors that would influence
technological development could be found in writing the scenarios. This
requires logical thinking by specifying the relations between the
forecasted items. This approach in finding new related factors is one of
the critical advantages of the DSW method.
The second advantage is found in
the easy processes of the scenario writing that do not require hard
→
thinking
by putting the Delphi-forecasting in the pre-stage.
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