Futures Thinking is a method for informed reflection on the major changes that will occur in the next 10 or more years in the target area.

 

 

Look back to look forward

Which recent trends have most affected our user groups and changed user behaviors and preferences?

Which other recent trends are likely to affect our user groups significantly in future?

What were the drivers behind these trends?

What might be the next big impact of these trends if we extrapolate them into the future?

 

 

 

Collect and cluster signals

 What are some of the most inventive, disruptive, value-rich, and exciting things happening in the global community today?

What is driving these value innovations to emerge and develop?

What implications might they have in the future?

Why are these emerging value innovations are important to us, and how might they change to the domain we’re strategizing for and designing in?

 

 

 

Forecast two curves

What game-changing innovations might stem from today’s signals of change if they become mainstream?

What might the transition look like if it happens?

What elements of our target market will be most transformed as a result?

Which components of customer value that are important today will continue to be so and which will become obsolete?

 

 

Reveal unexpected possibilities

What are the major signals of change that we are seeing in today’s world that might have implications for the future?

What interesting opportunities could exist at the intersection of some of these signals?

Which market insights are the most interesting?

What kinds of user needs could emerge at the intersection of these insights?

Which emerging user needs seem to be the most critical?

What kinds of value innovations and new user experiences could be created to fill the intersection of these needs?

 

 

 

Anticipate and address challenges

What challenges we may face when we start creating futuristic value innovations and user experiences?

How could we address these challenges creatively and turn them to opportunities?